Thursday, May 24, 2007

Global Warming Caused By Solar NOT Human Causes

Report from

Changes on Neptune Link Sun and Global Warming

Skeptics of manmade global warming have found further support in research linking solar output with the planet Neptune’s brightness and temperatures on Earth.

The findings appeared in a recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters. The authors of the article, H.B. Hammel and G.W. Lockwood from the Space Science Institute in Colorado and the Lowell Observatory in Arizona, note that measurements of visible light from Neptune have been taken at the Observatory since 1950.

Those measurements indicate that Neptune has been getting brighter since around 1980. And infrared measurements of the planet since 1980 show that Neptune has been warming steadily as well.

The researchers plotted on a graph the changes in visible light from Neptune over the past half-century, changes in temperatures on Earth during that period, and changes in total solar irradiance.

The results: The correlation between solar irradiance and Neptune’s brightness was nearly perfect; so was the correlation between changes on Earth and solar output, according to a report on the research appearing on World Climate Report, a climate change blog.

“When the sun is more energetic and putting out more energy, the Earth tends to warm up, and when the sun cools down, so does the Earth,” World Climate Report notes. “The Hammel and Lockwood article reveals that the same is true out at Neptune — when the sun’s energy increases, Neptune seems to warm up and get brighter . . .

“How is it possible that the Earth’s temperature is so highly correlated with brightness variations from Neptune? The news from Neptune comes to us just weeks after an article was published showing that Mars has warmed recently as well.

“If nothing else, we have certainly learned recently that planets undergo changes in their mean temperature, and while we can easily blame human activity here on the Earth, blaming humans for the recent warming on Mars and Neptune would be an astronomical stretch, to say the least.”


Anonymous said...

The whole global warming fiasco is the democrats trying to 1, get the attention and support of americans, 2 enhance fundraising efforts with stupid movies, and 3 push blame on the republicans that they conjured out of thin air...

JC said...

It's helpful to read the original article abstract which concludes "Although correlations between Neptune's brightness and Earth's temperature anomaly--and between Neptune and two models of solar variability--are visually compelling, at this time they are not statistically significant." In essence, the fact that Neptune and Earth are both warming means nothing but isn't it fun to put the two graphs next to each other?! Hardly a ringing endorsement and yet this article is quoted with triumph by global warming skeptics.

The strangest thing about the article is it's graph of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) from an outdated reconstruction of solar irradiance by Foukal et al made 5 years ago which ends in 1990. Foukal's reconstruction contradicts direct satellite measurements by PMOD that have found solar output has shown no rising trend since 1978, the Max Planck Institute reconstruction that shows irradience has been steady since 1940 and solar radio flux or flare activity which shows no rising trend over the past 30 years.

So what's causing Neptune's warming? The planet reached its farthest point from the sun in 1960 so it's been moving towards the sun ever since. Neptune's orbit is 163 years so observations of Neptune's orbit (1950 to present day) spans less than a third of a Neptunian year. This has led astronomers to conclude that Neptune brightening is a seasonal response).

So why Neptune is brightening is clearly not related to increasing solar output. The only mystery here is how such an ambiguous and misleading article could get through the peer review process.